[Metaculus] Will Waltine Nauta receive a more severe sentence than Donald Trump in "United S...Trump and Waltine Nauta"?
[Metaculus] Will Waltine Nauta receive a more severe sentence than Donald Trump in "United S...Trump and Waltine Nauta"?
Metaculus
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2026
50%
chance

Will Waltine Nauta receive a more severe sentence than Donald Trump in "United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta"?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves Yes if before January 20, 2026, any of the following occur in the federal criminal case of United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta:

  1. Waltine Nauta receives a longer prison sentence than Donald Trump.

  2. Neither Trump nor Nauta receive a prison sentence, but Nauta receives a greater fine, longer probation, more time under house arrest, or more community service time than Trump.

    1. Nauta receives a prison sentence, but Trump receives house arrest or other non-prison confinement, even if for a longer period of time.

The question is annulled if any of the following occur:

  1. Both defendants are acquitted.

  2. The case is dismissed for both defendants.

  3. One defendant, (but not both), enters into a plea deal for a lighter sentence, or;

  4. Verdicts have not been issued for either Nauta or Trump.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous.

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