[Metaculus] Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?
[Metaculus] Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?
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Jul 2
50%
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Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves positively if at least one judge announces Trump's guilt of at least one count, as reported by credible sources.
This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
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