[Metaculus] Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?
[Metaculus] Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?
Mini
2
Ṁ11
Nov 6
94%
chance

Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This will resolve Yes if according to credible sources Joe Biden is unwillingly removed , or ordered to be removed, from any ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election, be it the Democrat primary or the general election. The mechanism of the removal can be either by court order or the direct action of the relevant state government. Voluntary withdrawal from a ballot will not count for resolution, nor will removal based upon the choice of a non-governmental organization like the DNC. If this does not happen before the day of the election in 2024, the question will resolve No. Appeals which overturn the initial verdict or action shall not impact the resolution.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.


Sort by:
1y

sd fsgsdg

bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 59% 1y
1y

@IngaWei sdgsdgdsgsg s