Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Pre-commit to a resolution mechanism
Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Pre-commit to a resolution mechanism
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Ṁ138Feb 1
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The simplest version of this feature is that the market becomes a yes/no poll, and if it closes with % chance greater than 50%, it resolves to yes, otherwise it resolves to no. I guess exactly 50% would resolve to "N/A" or "MKT"
A more advanced feature would make it more like a poll, allowing the creator to specify the choices (i.e., A, B, or C), and the market resolves in favour of the plurality choice.
Some even more complex variations (that I wouldn't recommend implementing right away, but are neat to think about)
- Specify thresholds for particular resolutions (e.g., "this resolves to yes if % chance is greater than 75%", or "this multiple-choice question resolves to whichever option has majority support, otherwise it resolves to N/A or MKT").
- Instead of a multiple-choice poll, allow ranked choice voting or whatever other exotic voting mechanism.
I commit to resolving this market to whichever option has the greatest support, but it would be really convenient if I could make a platform-enforced promise to that effect!
#ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest
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What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
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You might well need more than 0 time to make a correct resolution; we need a close date that != the resolution date for somethings.
Also, not sure how this would work for things with a chance of a N/A resolution.
I guess you could mitigate that by specifying maximum trade size, which would force cheaters to make fake accounts rather than huge bets.
Or you could introduce a quadratic-voting like system, which would make buying the resolution a lot more expensive (potentially prohibitively so, if you tune the parameters correctly)
Seems useful but also subject to manipulation on the margins; if we wind up with accounts sufficiently rich in fake money they could buy the resolution of such markets outright if they have enough market making power.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
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