
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?
Mini
0
Jan 2
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the CDC has identified a new variant of concern between Issuance and December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2023?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
60% chance
[Kalshi] Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2024?
55% chance
[Kalshi] Will TikTok be banned by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
[Kalshi] Will GPT-5 be released by December 31, 2024?
52% chance
[Kalshi] Will the U.S. credit rating be downgraded by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?
46% chance
Will WHO designate another Variant Of Concern by the end of 2022?
59% chance
[Kalshi] Will there be a recession by the end of 2024?
50% chance
"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
44% chance