[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
Metaculus
Mini
0
Jul 2
50%
chance

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, after December 1, 2023, and before July 1, 2025, all three of the following occur:

  1. The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group announces or classifies on CDC's SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications page at least one new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) or Variant of High Consequence (VOHC) that was not previously identified as a VOC or VOHC at any point.

  2. Daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the United States reach 20,000 or higher according to data provided by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

  3. The surge of COVID hospitalizations (described in requirement 2) is attributed to the variant(s) (described in requirement 1) by the CDC or other credible sources. Not every hospitalization needs to be attributed to the variant(s) identified in requirement 1; it is sufficient if sources attribute the unusually large number of cases to the VOC(s).

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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