[ACX2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
[ACX2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
MetaculusACX2024
Mini
0
Jan 2
50%
chance

Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if any members of the Electoral College vote for a candidate other than the candidate to whom they had pledged their vote in the 2024 presidential election, and their vote is not invalidated, according to reporting by credible sources.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Comments


Related questions