Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2023?
Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2023?
Mini
2
Ṁ50Jan 2
46%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Epstein-Bar has recently been very credibly fingered as the leading cause of Multiple Sclerosis:
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/epstein-barr-virus-may-be-leading-cause-of-multiple-sclerosis/
Will we discover that some other mysterious disease of unknown origin is caused by a Virus?
#virus
#medicine
#science
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
97% chance
Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?
46% chance
Will at least one new hair loss treatment which is more effective than existing treatments become approved by the FDA and publicly available by 2025?
50% chance
Will proof emerge that the world is ruled by lizard people?
41% chance
"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
44% chance
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2023?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way...before January 1st, 2025?
50% chance
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?
50% chance
Will there be a 2022 SARS-CoV-2 variant named "Upsilon"?
54% chance
"Will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency in 2023?"
3% chance