When will Russia invade the Ukraine?
When will Russia invade the Ukraine?
Mini
2
Ṁ132Mar 26
1D
1W
1M
ALL
14%Other
9%
Not this year; diplomacy will prevail.
26%
Before March 1st.
36%
February 2014
15%
Between March 1st and March 15th
Feb 16, 4:50pm: This will not resolve none! Unless Russia and Ukraine disappear under a mysterious dark cloud from which no information can escape. Then it will resolve none.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?
39% chance
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
63% chance
Will there be over 200 Ukrainian Military deaths by the end of March 2022
42% chance
Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?
37% chance
Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of January?
13% chance
Will more than 15,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?
27% chance
"Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol at the end of 2023?"
51% chance
"Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?"
56% chance
"Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?"
72% chance
"Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023?"
63% chance