Will China have over 10,000 COVID-19 cases per day at the end of February 2022?
Will China have over 10,000 COVID-19 cases per day at the end of February 2022?
Mini
6
Ṁ4509Mar 1
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Related metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9053/new-covid-19-cases-in-mainland-china/
I'll resolve this on or around March 15 by taking an average of the last 7 days of February for "China" on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases.
Jan 14, 7:18pm: #China #Covid #CovidZero
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Sort by:
I'm out of M$ but seems like this should still be much lower based on related markets like https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9053/new-covid-19-cases-in-mainland-china/
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20...e US before July 1, 2025?
50% chance
Will China report more than 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases for any single day before May 2022?
36% chance
"Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?"
31% chance
[Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?
80% chance
Will most of the US population have gotten Covid by the end of 2022?
88% chance
Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict in 2022?
0% chance
Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?
48% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
72% chance
Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?
14% chance
"Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?"
45% chance