[ACX2024] Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?
Mini
2
Ṁ15Jan 2
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q* (or Q-Star) and publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q*.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all tr...ety reasons, before 2026?
50% chance
"Will OpenAI release GPT-4 in 2023?"
28% chance
[Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?
80% chance
[ACX2024] Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
80% chance
[ACX2024] Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?
50% chance
"Will AI win a programming competition in 2023?"
37% chance
Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2024?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?
49% chance