Will FBI statistics show homicides in excess of 7 deaths per 100,000 in 2021?
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Ṁ30Jun 23
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US homicides spiked in 2020 to over 6 per 100,000, an increase of over 30% year on year (source: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/27/1040904770/fbi-data-murder-increase-2020). If 2021 saw a similar increase, homicides could be as high as 7 or 8 per 100,000. Alternately, 2021 might have seen a similar number.
This question will resolve when official FBI statistics are reported on, likely around September 2022.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.
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