Will there be a kinetic strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility?
Mini
1
Ṁ200Jan 2
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be a kinetic strike (non cyber) in an Iranian nuclear facility by the end of 2022. Market resolves based off OSINT reporting.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
"Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?"
33% chance
[Metaculus] Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?
50% chance
"Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran in 2023?"
59% chance
Will we fund "Mainstreaming Nuclear Winter Science"?
45% chance
"Will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over in 2023?"
67% chance
"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?"
41% chance
Will I see a rocket launch tonight?
50% chance
Will we fund "Nuclear Off-Ramps"?
50% chance
Will we fund "Socio-political impacts of nuclear winter"?
55% chance
"Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023?"
63% chance