Manifold lets you trade on upcoming events using play money. As other users trade against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.

Trade on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.

Trade to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!

Get started for free! No credit card required.